Case Study
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Environment
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April 2026
The Illinois Clean Energy Rollback
In 2021, Illinois passed the Climate and Equitable Jobs Act (CEJA), setting the state on a path to 100% clean energy by 2050. By 2026, four coordinated bills were simultaneously attacking it. The signals that preceded this campaign were visible years earlier – with enough lead time to materially change the outcome. Most organizations only engaged once the legislation appeared. By that point, the narrative, coalition, and strategy were already in place.
Threat
4 coordinated repeal bills, 2026
Background
CEJA is working, but its success is creating near-term strain. Coal plants are closing while renewable replacements lag behind. In summer 2024, a MISO capacity auction spiked to $666/MWh, up from $30 the prior year, and electricity bills jumped.
That created an opening.
Opposition groups built a simple narrative: CEJA caused an affordability and reliability crisis. Repeal it.
That narrative did not emerge overnight. It developed over several years, across studies, messaging, and early legislative activity, before producing a coordinated legislative push.
Signal Timeline
Illinois Senate passes "grid reliability task force" bill
Six months after CEJA's passage, the opposition framing – reliability and affordability – appears in formal legislation for the first time. The same industry groups begin appearing in witness slips across multiple states.
PJM publishes Illinois Generation Retirement Study ($700M estimate)
The regional grid operator provides technical credibility for the emerging narrative. This study becomes a reference point in subsequent arguments against CEJA.
Senate Republicans introduce coordinated 3-bill "energy crisis" package
Identical language appears across multiple press releases. This is no longer isolated activity. A coordinated campaign is forming.
"Energize Illinois" launches – House files HB4087 + HB4088
A branded campaign emerges with shared talking points and synchronized messaging. Legislative and narrative coordination now extend across chambers.
2026 Session
Detected Now
Four simultaneous bills attack CEJA
Two bills seek full repeal. Two strip regulatory authority, making CEJA unenforceable even if it remains in statute. The campaign is fully formed.
What earlier visibility makes possible
With earlier visibility, organizations could have acted while the campaign was still forming – before its narrative hardened and its coalition fully assembled.
Advocates and policy teams
- Build a counter-narrative on grid reliability before the opposition framing took hold
- Form coalitions with labor, consumer advocates, and rural communities around affordability and transition impacts
- Engage legislative allies early, before positions hardened
- Commission independent analysis to contextualize or challenge emerging cost claims
Developers and operators
- Adjust long-term pipeline exposure to Illinois relative to other states
- Prioritize projects with shorter permitting timelines to reduce regulatory risk
- Incorporate policy volatility scenarios into project underwriting
- Begin building relationships with local stakeholders before opposition narratives took hold
Advocates and policy teams
- Engage persuadable legislators before alignment with the Energize Illinois campaign
- Mobilize constituents in key districts – workers, farmers, and local businesses affected by CEJA
- Deploy targeted messaging to contest the reliability and affordability framing
- Introduce procedural friction through committee testimony and legal analysis
Developers and operators
- Delay or stage new project commitments until policy direction became clearer
- Reallocate near-term capital toward more stable regulatory environments
- Engage directly or through industry groups on emerging legislative risk
- Stress-test project economics under potential rollback scenarios
Advocates and policy teams
- Oppose the bills in committee, with limited room to reshape the narrative or coalition
- Prepare for legal challenges if the legislation passes
Developers and operators
- Pause or hedge exposure where possible
- Prepare for regulatory or legal disruption to active projects
- Shift focus to defensive positioning rather than proactive expansion
By the time the bills were introduced, the outcome was already largely shaped. The signals that pointed to it were visible much earlier.
Undercurrent is built to make those earlier moments visible – when there is still time to act.